TheChez.net

by ssjrem

Yeah, I’m bored and this should be a pretty huge weekend at the box office. Honestly, this one has record setting potential in a couple of different ways. First of all, New Moon could set several records. It could challenge Goblet of Fire for highest November opening weekend and it could also challenge its predecessor for biggest Friday percentage of the overall weekend. Furthermore, we’ve got a lot of holdovers and other openers. We could potentially see up to six different pictures all gross over ten million, which I don’t think has ever happened before. So, yeah, on to the predictions!

New Moon

New Moon does have a lot of potential and the opening weekend gross will definitely be huge, but I can’t see the gross being upsurd. At best, it could challenge Transformers for highest opening weekend of the year. It seems like the fanbase and the frenzy has only grown significanlty since last year. A year ago, Twilight burst on to the scene with an incredible 69 million. Now, things have only grown more intense. Plus, judging from the trailer, it seems like it will just plain be a better movie. They’re throwing action scenes in there that didn’t exist in the book (from what Dukemich tells me; I never actually finished the book) and it seems like the producers are trying to to give the guys who get dragged to this something to enjoy. Then again, you’ll also have the guys who willingly go see this movie and it’s not like I’m a part of that group or anything. No way. Not me. But that’s a major problem when it comes to this. It’s pretty much entirely driven by women. Yes, lots of boyfriends and husbands will get dragged to it, but that’s about it. With things like Harry Potter, both guys and girls enjoy those movies, which is one of the key reasons I don’t think the Twilight series can quite reach those heights. Then again, Potter fans aren’t nearly as crazy and passionate as the Twilight ones, some of whom might go see this mutiple times. Regardless, the potential is gargantuan but at the same time limited. It depends on the movie, but you’d generally like Friday to comprise about 35% or so of the total weekend gross. Kid’s movies usually do better on Saturday and Sunday, so Fridays might only account for 25% for them. And then you have frontloaded films where Friday can comprise upwards of 40%. Well, New Moon could set a record there. It’s Friday could easily make up 55 to 60% of its entire opening weekend. That means that to get over one hundred million for the weekend, it would need an opening day in excess of 55 million. That will not happen. I just don’t see how that could be possible. So, I’m going with a high prediction here, but not anything I think is crazy. I’m calling for New Moon to make about 94 million. We’ll find out how I did on Sunday.

The number two spot should go to 2012. I don’t see anyway this could possibly not competely tank. Roland Emmerich films, with the exception of Independece Day, do not have good legs and the reviews for this one were terrible. I figure it will drop about 60% down to 26 million.

A Christmas Carol held well last weekend, but features some direct competition from Planet 51. Still, Thanksgiving is next weekend and people are now getting into more of a Christmas mood. ACC could fall to about 15 million while Planet 51 might do about 12 or so.

I don’t really get an sort of exceptional vibe from The Blind Side and considering everything else going on this weekend, something’s gotta give. It might be this. I give it ten million. As for Precious? I have no fucking clue. Nine million sounds good.

And then we have a bunch of holdovers rounding out the top ten. I’ll go with 3.5 for TMWSAG, 2.5 for Couples Retreat and This is It and about 2.3 or so Paranormal Activity, which has now been mostly forgotten about.

Yep, so those are my predictions. So, what could I wager? Hmmm, if New Moon opens to upward of 115 million, I will paint my face blue for the premiere of Avatar. Good luck tonight at the New Moon midnight showing, dukemich. I hope the costume goes over well. Until we meet again.