TheChez.net

by ssjrem

Well, it looks like I’ll be going to Avatar with blue face paint on. I really thought that that was a safe bet. I figured opening to 115 million was possible, but not very likely. Well, I could have not have been more wrong. My predictions for this weekend, on everything, were completely wrong. It happens I guess. So, yeah, anyway, this weekend was the second highest grossing ever. Only weekend ever has grossed more and that was when The Dark Knight opened. The top twelve made 248 million this weekend compared to 253 million when The Dark Knight premiered. That is fucking insane. I knew New Moon would be big, but I’m speechless now. Second biggest weekend ever? Crazy…. and New Moon led the way.

Well, all I have to say is….. fuck. I knew Twilight was big and I knew that the fans were ridiculously passionate, but this has left completely and utterly speechless. This debut is worlds beyond what I thought would be possible for this. The utmost I would’ve pegged New Moon at is 125 million, but it shattered even that. I cannot fucking believe this. How the hell did this movie make this much movie? Okay, so let’s begin by breaking down the weekend. New Moon got started with a record 26 million from midnight showings alone. With that insane gross, it’s Friday came in at 72 million. 72 million in one day? That, I thought, was literally impossible. We’ve never seen anything like that. That is the highest grossing single day ever. That beat The Dark Knight’s debut of 67 million. The highest grossing single day ever now belongs to the Twilight franchise. I am floored. I never had any idea that fangirls were this hardcore. Anyway, as expected, the film was kind of frontloaded. It slipped down to 43 million on Saturday and then about 25 million on Sunday, still both very impressive totals. Besides, the first day for this was always expected to be by far the biggest.

So what does that give us for the weekend as a whole? 140 million. That is twice what Twilight made in its opening weekend. New Moon made more in one day than Twilight did in its entire opening weekend. Everyone knew that the frenzy and all that have grown since Twilight, but no one expected anything on anywhere near this scale. 140 million in three days is an absurdly high amount of money. That gives New Moon the highest grossing opening weekend of the year. And by a longshot. It crushes Revenge of the Fallen’s 108 million. Admittedly, ROTF opened on a Wednesday, which lowered it’s gross over the weekend proper, but still, New Moon’s feat is absurd. And it’s powered almost entirely by women and then the guys who get dragged there. I am floored. 140 million gives New Moon the third highest grossing opening weekend ever. Only Spider-Man 3 and The Dark Knight have opened to more. The Twilight franchise has joined the ranks of the true box office juggernauts. It’s power can not be denied.

The big question, though, is where does it go from here? Given that 40% decline on Saturday and the obviously front loaded nature of this, the fall next weekend should be absolutely gargantuan. Though, that Saturday decrease is pretty much in line with Twilight’s. Twilight tanked in the second weekend and then rebounded a bit after that, actually having decent legs. It ended up with 191 million. So, that gives it  a 2.76 multiplier from its opening weekend. If New Moon can replicate that, it would end up with 386 million. I cannot swallow that. Twilight is fucking huge, but it’s not that huge. However, Summit made a really smart move by scheduling this the weekend before Thanksgiving and that could mitigate a 70% fall to being closer to 60% or so. So, in light of this debut, New Moon has a ridiculously good shot at hitting 300 million, which is an absurd improvement over the first movie. There is also the possibility that New Moon could outgross Harry Potter and The Sorceror’s Stone, the highest grossing film of the Harry Potter franchise. And that reminds me, even the Harry Potter franchise has never had a debut this gigantic. Though, if Deathly Hallows opens on a Friday unlike the past two Potter films that have opened on Wednesdays, it could definitely pass out New Moon. Then again, they are splitting Deathly Hallows into two parts and that’ll make a difference. So, anyway, I think New Moon is going to have absurdly awful legs and it could end up with a sub 2 multiplier. Even still, we’re looking at about 275 million at the absolute worst. I still do think New Moon will get over 300 million and should pass out Harry Potter and The Half Blood Prince, becoming the second highest grossing movie of the year. This shit is crazy.

The Blind Side

Well, for this to be the second highest grossing weekend ever, some other movies had to do really well, right? Well, The Blind Side is the breakout success here, raking in a very impressive 34.5 million. This is one hell of a year for Sandra Bullock. Good for her. Yeah, I predicted like eleven million for this, so I got fucked. But I got fucked on pretty much everything. I really, really did not see this making this much, though maybe this is just what everyone saw then New Moon was sold out when they got to the theatre. This debut is actually higher than The Proposal, which is quite an accomplisment. It’s rocking a respectable 70% at Rotten Tomatoes and with Thanksgiving next weekend, this should definitely get over 100 million.

About the only thing I got right this weekend was the fact that 2012 would fall about 60%. And considering how awful it was, it really should have dropped even more. But I guess this weekend it was the only action movie and acted as an Anti-Twilight. Anyway, the total’s up to 108.2 million, which New Moon has already destroyed. Realistically, I think New Moon has about an 95% chance of being the highest grossing movie of the holiday season. Nothing is going to be able to compete. Anyway, 2012 isn’t going to do that great on the domestic front, but should be fine in the long run with overseas grosses.

Planet 51 has an okay debut in fourth, but after all, this is a very crowded weekend. 12.6 million ain’t half bad. This very easily could have gotten completely lost in the scramble with everything also going on this weekend.

A Christmas Carol fell about 45% to 12.2 million and that doesn’t really bode well. This is a film that needs to have good legs or it’s just screwed. With a running total now of about 80 million, I just don’t see how this one is going to be profitable. It should get a healthy boost next weekend, but even still, that won’t save it.

Once again, I know nothing at all about Precious. It made 11 million this weekend. I got nuthin’ else to say.

So, we had six different films manage over ten million. After those, we just kind of get shitty holdovers at the bottom of the top ten. 2.8 for TMWSAG, 1.9 for Couples Retreat, 1.7 for the Fourth Kind, and Law Abiding Citizen brings in another 1.6 million. Not one of those four fell less than 50%. They just kind of got fucked over by everything else going on this weekend.

So, there you have it. New Moon debuts to what I thought was an impossibly high amount and we have the second highest grossing movie of all time. Crazy, crazy shit. Everyone knew New Moon would be big, but this is just insane. We’ll learn a lot next weekend about where New Moon will end up. It has no direct competition against the openers Ninja Assassin, Old Dogs, and The Road. Old Dogs looks like pure shit, Ninja Assassin looks ridiculous but in an awesome way and I actually think The Road looks really good. However, I was the one who wanted to see 2012 and that was dreadful. So, we’ll see. New Moon shouldn’t have the slightest bit of trouble topping the charts again, but the interesting thing will be to see how hard it falls. Until we meet again.